2007: How Microsoft launches the Linux Revolution
Posted by The Technocrat | Filed under Operating Systems
As I’m sure most have seen, Vista has launched with a less-than-$500-million result. In my home Chicago, I’ve been hearing about all sorts of midnight store openings with very poor turnout. There just seems to not be much enthusiasm about it. But there’s something else that occurred to me this week: Microsoft has just done more for Linux than the community ever could have. Here’s my reasoning:
Windows XP, for all practical purposes, is the most preferred OS in existence. Note that I’m not saying superior, it’s just that if you consider third party software, device support, existing hardware, general level of understanding by the population, and existing install base, XP is the ideal operating system, because it created the environment around itself. It’s been like this forever with software, or even business, for that matter. Get a product into widespread adoption, and you can basically define the environment around it. In this sense, XP had it made. They could easily have kept rolling out service packs, and let people get on with their lives.
Then they threw it away. Sure, some will move to Vista, simply on the reputation of XP. But here are a few observations that I think will prove to make the switch much more difficult:
- Read the blogs from this week on Vista. Device support is horrendous. Even new computers sporting the ‘ready for vista’ stickers are having issues getting drivers. That’s a deal-breaker. You can’t invalidate someone’s investment in their machine’s components.
- The hardware requirements are ridiculous. Think about it: besides the typical computer-saavy person (think: your parents), what is the average machine out there? 1Ghz, on 512MB of RAM, if you’re lucky? With onboard video on some Best Buy special from 2004, that came with a free printer and a 17″ CRT? You think someone’s going to be happy with the performance after spending the cash to upgrade – not to mention that the upgrade EULA is worded in a way that cancels their XP licensing? I doubt anyone in this group is going to make the investments needed for Vista to do what they do, which is go on the internet and use a word processor. Which brings up…
- What does Vista offer these people? Faster load times, yes, but for half the cash you could quadruple the RAM in some of these people’s machines as well.
So here’s what it comes down to. All the balls are back in the air, and in the next year or so people will have to start making a decision what their next OS will be. Check out the problems #1 and 3 listed above, these difficulties sound familiar? It’s Linux, circa 2002. And there’s the rub. Linux has come a long way since then, and it’s breaking into a level of usability that is considered usable by our target group. Indeed, put someone in front of Ubuntu these days, and they’ll be happy.
So, what, throw away XP? In a word, sure. For most people. If you can get someone in the target group to use Linux and see how usable it is, and get their printer working, it shouldn’t be a problem. Gaming development dollars will follow wherever the userbase is, just look at the history of the console industry. Driver development is getting hot as well.
Microsoft has put itself in a position where all of its strengths in XP (in terms of driver support and hardware requirements) are know knocked down to a level where Linux can compete with the new Vista. They already had the championship belt, but chose to tie one arm back on Vista and send it back into the ring…and the competitors are much stronger than last time. Sociologically, this is the worst time to do this, as emphasis gets stronger on a daily basis to do what you feel is best for yourself, and deciding not to tie yourself to any limiting arrangements. We’ve seen this with Firefox.
All in all, things are getting very interesting, and it will be even more interesting to see what happens on the new playing field, which is now as level as it has ever been.
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February 3, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Linux for the masses??Not yet.
After trying many others OpenSuse is the winner for me.But I am keeping XP because it’s easy to install and run application on Windows.The only problem is spyware and viruses invade Windows at any given time.Microsoft itself is the source of the problem.They could make Win more secure.When it comes to drivers for Vista,give it time.People are still waiting or will run XP for the time now.Problem #1 with Linux:Find the right and simple information.Most Win users are not technically inclined.
#2 Installing software.Most Distros won’t tell how to do it on their sites.If they do it’s not in simple terms.
I’m new in Linux (3 days).Started OpenSuse yesterday.I like it.Like this site.Still trying to install AVG on my Gateway
600YG2.
OpenSuse seems to be a Windows killer but more work has
to be done.
Thanks
February 9, 2007 at 4:47 pm
I had my ‘aha’ moment a month or so ago. I suddenly realized I’ve been a dupe for the last decade. Just getting screwed. My computer just doesn’t work well. Something is always crashing, it’s too slow (and it shouldn’t be, the hardware’s fine) it just stinks.
No. Sorry, XP stinks. Not as much as 2000 did (no blue screen of death every other day) but then 2000 was a nightmare. XP is just a pain in the *ss.
Sooo, I decided – and this is a big leap for me – that I’m buying a Mac. I thought I’d consign my 2 PC’s to the dustbin, or give them away. Then yesterday, another huge epiphany: It occured to me, why not go open source? Daunting? Sure. But as I read about it, the more I’m sure I can handle it.
So, see ya Bill. XP’s crapped the bed too many times. I’ll try Linux. Ubuntu sounds sexy. Let’s see how it goes.
March 4, 2007 at 3:00 pm
A good article, I agree with most of the points there.
Interesting thing about this EULA wording cancelling out the copy of XP, I wasn’t aware of that, could you elaborate more on that?
March 5, 2007 at 2:49 pm
13. UPGRADES. To use upgrade software, you must first be licensed for the software that is eligible for the upgrade. Upon upgrade, this agreement takes the place of the agreement for the software you upgraded from. After you upgrade, you may no longer use the software you upgraded from.
In short, once you go Vista, you can’t go back… :-\
March 12, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Unless they mean to cover themselves from people using the upgrade them giving their old copy to someone else? So this means you can’t use the old one once you’ve upgraded, but doesn’t necessarily say you can’t start using the old one again if you uninstall the new one?
Probably not, but still I don’t think that’s as water tight as it could be
August 2, 2008 at 4:06 pm
I agreed with you
April 14, 2010 at 12:50 am
Loved your analysis of this engrossing idea. Bookmarked and visit again for more insightful discussion.
February 3, 2011 at 5:47 am
Unless they mean to cover themselves from people using the upgrade them giving their old copy to someone else? So this means you can’t use the old one once you’ve upgraded, but doesn’t necessarily say you can’t start using the old one again if you uninstall the new one?